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QKW.com, a model for Sustainable Development Economics

Sustainability: Living With Three Billion More People

We had a billion citizens living in urban areas on our planet in 1960 where our current planning and development systems are rooted. In the 50 years since then we've added 2.5 billion urban citizens and in the next 40 years we will add nearly 3 billion more urban citizens.

 19001950201020302050
urban pop220m (13%)732m (29%)3.5b (50%)4.9b (60%)6.2b (70%)
rural pop1.56b (87%)1.86b (71%)3.5b (50%)3.3b (40%)2.7b (30%)
total pop1.7b2.56b7.0b8.2b8.9b
ann.growth-10m46m70m65m (urban)

Urbanization is not bad, it is just reality. In fact, "cities (and villages) magnify humanity's strengths. They spur innovation by facilitating face-to-face interaction, they attract talent and sharpen it through competition, they encourage entrepreneurship, and they allow for social and economic mobility." (Edward Glaeser)

Effective public policy is essential to creating healthy villages and cities (and healthy agricultural areas). Land title and infrastructure including water and sanitation, public safety, transportation, health services and education must work effectively. Jobs must be available for families to secure housing and meet household expenses.

If this environment exists, small businesses will start, big businesses and investors will invest, and families and children can flourish. To create this environment is a very tough job and we are not good at it. "127 million people in Latin American cities live in informal settlements ... with large costs for residents, insecurity of tenure, lack of public services, discrimination by others, environmental and health hazards, and inequitable civil rights plus indirect costs in public health, criminal violence, and related social problems." (Lincoln Institute)
Accomodating 3 billion people that aren't here yet and doing better for the 3 billion that are here is an immense challenge. (updated 7/24/12 09:41)
Meticulous Specific Planning   Systematic Planning Streamlined Planning
Current Practices :

Major investment in economic development or land development might be triggered by a natural disaster (Hurricane .. in New Orleans, the 1/12/2010 earthquake in Haiti), by developers and investors (Columbia, MD), or by public policy (seven50). Investment is likely to be very great ($100m, $1b, $10b) and a major planning effort is needed to make sure the investment is conceived and managed well. The very best consultants (or advisors) that can be engaged will be engaged, and a planning effort requiring years is likely to be needed.
Pro-Forma (based on standards, best practices, & tentative proposals):

Our purpose is to provide templates for economic development that will provide means for feasibility analysis, development management and investor oversight. Presently these templates are expressed as case studies of actual projects developed in Africa, Asia, South America and in the U.S. Click on SiteTree (all case studies) (whereever you see it) for a complete list of case studies presented at the pvmm.com website. Here are examples on which we are focusing to establish this capability: We are creating a computer model that will allow one to prepare a plan for a human settlement providing for "X" families to be completed in "Y" years which will provide for the full range of activities in our 11 categories of settlement needs. "X" can be any number of families, perhaps 1000 or 10,000 or 100,000 or millions. "Y" can be any number of years, perhaps 15 or 30. The basic model will have built in a set of standards, policies and assumptions based on our experience and observations.
Economic Development
Demographics
Housing
Water & Sewer
Land Use
Transportation
Public Safety
Public Works
Education
Health Care
Recreation & Open Space
Agriculture
Forestation
Coastal Management
Conservation
Enabling Legislation
Intergovernmental Coordination
Hazard Mitigation
Zoning
Comprehensive Plan
Training & Empowerment
Finance
Management
Detailed Planning :

The top level plan for Dodoma that was signed by President Nyerere was 153 pages with 26 major drawings: Plan for the New Capital of Tanzania. The plan was supported with approximately 2000 pages of data, clarification and analysis bound in approximately 15 books: Documents supporting the plan for Dodoma.

Columbia has been under development for 50 years. During the critical early years the Columbia Economic Model was revised quarterly in a manner that fully reflected accounting activity as well as future development expectation. The documents produced each quarter were close to 1000 pages and and were organized in a dozen books: Major Financial Planning Documents.
Adapted to Local Conditions:

There will be special circumstances for every project requiring that the pro forma be adapted for local conditions. The person using the model has the ability to articulate a different set of standards, policies and assumptions. The model can be used for several or many projects and can be constantly updated as planning and development experience proceeds. The model must also be tied in to accounting information as development proceeds.
Economic Development
Demographics
Housing
Water & Sewer
Land Use
Transportation
Public Safety
Public Works
Education
Health Care
Recreation & Open Space
Agriculture
Forestation
Coastal Management
Conservation
Enabling Legislation
Intergovernmental Coordination
Hazard Mitigation
Zoning
Comprehensive Plan
Training & Empowerment
Finance
Management


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